North American electronics industry growth began to sag in December 2013 and that downward trend has continued through the first two months of 2014. U.S. new orders have remained flat since the December downturn. Severe weather in the region may have been a contributing factor.
U.S. new orders for electronic products tend to lead sales by about one month. IPC’s PCB book-to-bill ratio, which normally leads sales by three to six months, has strengthened steadily over the past three months, but remains just below parity at 0.99. It reflects the fact that shipments have outpaced orders in most recent months. Orders pulled ahead of shipments in January for the first time in six months, but lagged again in February. Ratios below parity (1.00) indicate lower demand than supply, which may be a precursor of weakening sales growth in the PCB industry. The current ratio suggests that the projected recovery in 2014 may get off to a slow start.
All data cited in this report are based on rolling averages of the past three months, which smooths out some of the volatility in monthly data to show clearer trends.
